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 Euro At Risk for Retracement to Yearly Lows But Beware of Oversold Studies

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مُساهمةموضوع: Euro At Risk for Retracement to Yearly Lows But Beware of Oversold Studies   الجمعة مايو 18, 2012 10:54 am



Euro At Risk for Retracement to Yearly Lows But Beware of Oversold Studies



ByDailyFX on May 16, 2012 01:34:25 GMT


By Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com


  • Ongoing turmoil in Greece pressures markets lower
  • Fear of contagion to larger EX economies weighing
  • Technical studies are however stretched
  • Investors looking to retest Euro 2012 lows
  • Looking for technical bounce before trend continuation

The latest bout of intensified selling in the Euro has been
attributed to the ongoing political turmoil in the Eurozone.Currencies
in general have followed suit, and are under pressure against the buck.
With no clear resolution in sight for Greece, and new elections on the
horizon, many now fear the worst and the possibility of a Greek exit is
looking more realistic with every passing day. However, while the
possibility is increasing and panic and uncertainty are running high on
threat of contagion to larger Eurozone economies. We still do not see
the markets at risk for a material sell-off from current levels before
a technical correction.

We contend that the latest bout of risk-off trade has been driven
more by technical selling, resulting from a daily close below 1.3000 in
the Euro several days back, which now has traders setting sights set on
a retest of the 2012 lows from January at 1.2625. However, given how
severely overextended markets are at present, there should soon be some
relief, at least for a little while, before risk liquidation continues.
We often find that the middle of the week brings a reversal during
periods of intense volatility, and we suspect that the US Dollar may
find a top today before selling off into the remainder of this week and
the next. Looking ahead, there is a good deal of economic data on tap,
although we suspect attention will be focused to the FOMC Minutes due
out later in the day.



ECONOMIC CALENDAR



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK



EUR/USD: The market remains under intense pressure
and the focus for now is squarely on a retest of the 2012 lows from
January at 1.2625. While we would not rule out a possibility of a test
of this level over the coming sessions, short-term technical studies
are well oversold and are showing a need for some form of a corrective
bounce from where a fresh lower top is sought out. Ultimately however,
any rallies should now be very well capped by previous support turned
resistance at 1.3000 in favor of additional weakness over the
medium-term that projects deeper setbacks into the lower 1.2000′s.
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